Summary answer: On a two-year assignment, renting usually costs less than buying in Alexandria, because buying and selling costs are large relative to the time you own the home and the price gains forecast for 2026 are modest. In my illustration, a $600,000 purchase held for 24 months costs roughly $145,277 to own after interest, taxes, insurance, buying and selling costs, and assumed 2.3% appreciation, versus about $79,200 of rent at an assumed $3,300 a month. The picture changes if you plan to keep the home as a rental or stay longer.
I'm Johnny with JQ Real Estate. I would rather tell you that renting wins than sell you a house that loses money, so here is the math with every assumption on the table.
The assumptions
- Purchase: $600,000 with 10% down, a 7.28% 30-year rate (Freddie Mac, October 1, 2026), and Alexandria's $1.135 per $100 tax rate.
- Buying costs: 2.5% of the price at closing.
- Selling costs: 7% of the sale price, an assumption that includes agent fees and transfer-related costs. Your actual costs depend on your negotiated terms.
- Insurance and mortgage insurance: $130 a month and 0.6% of the loan a year, both assumptions.
- Rent: $3,300 a month for a comparable home. This is an assumption, so replace it with a real rental quote.
Two years of owning versus renting
| Price Change Over 2 Years | Sale Value | Net Cost of Owning | Rent Paid | Owning Minus Renting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% | $600,000 | $158,111 | $79,200 | $78,911 |
| 2.3% | $613,800 | $145,277 | $79,200 | $66,077 |
| 5.0% | $630,000 | $130,211 | $79,200 | $51,011 |
The net cost of owning counts interest paid, taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance, buying costs, and selling costs, minus the price gain. It does not count principal paid down, which you get back as equity. After 24 months at 7.28%, the loan balance falls from $540,000 to about $529,217, so about $10,783 of your payments became equity. Even when you consider that, the transaction costs dominate over a short hold.
Why the forecast does not rescue a two-year hold
The Northern Virginia Realtors' mid-year forecast projects 2026 median price changes of +1.1% for single-family homes, +2.3% for townhomes, and +2.2% for condos in Alexandria. The FHFA index for the city rose 1.0% in 2025. At those rates, appreciation over two years might cover a fraction of the 7% you pay to sell. To break even on the costs you would need a gain well beyond the forecasts.
When buying still makes sense
- You expect to return or stay. If your assignment might extend or you plan to retire in the area, the horizon is longer.
- You plan to rent it out. Military tenants and others can pay part or most of the carrying cost, though the illustration in my article on renting out a PCS home shows a possible shortfall at today's rates.
- You have a low-rate loan to assume. An assumable VA loan from a seller with an older rate could change the math.
- You value stability or need a larger home. Some families accept a cost for that.
- The seller pays your costs. A negotiated credit shrinks the hurdle.
Check your housing allowance
Compare your allowance to both options. If it covers rent on a comparable home, renting leaves it intact. If the full purchase payment, about $4,662 a month in this illustration before any condo dues, exceeds the allowance, you would pay the difference from your pocket. Look up the current Washington, DC area rate with the Defense Travel Management Office before you decide.
Renting well in Alexandria
If you rent, the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act and Virginia law allow you to end a lease on PCS orders with proper notice, so a good lease is flexible for a military tenant. Send written notice with a copy of your orders and keep proof of delivery. Search near the Metro stations that serve your duty station, and ask landlords about the lease terms before you apply.
An example
A Marine with a two-year tour at the Pentagon has $60,000 saved and a VA entitlement, and is tempted to buy a $600,000 townhome. The illustration shows owning costs more than renting by tens of thousands of dollars over two years, assuming a typical appreciation. Instead, the Marine rents near the Braddock Road station, keeps the savings invested, and buys at the next duty station if the numbers work. The decision turned on holding period, not on a belief that buying is bad.
Run your own numbers
Reach out and I'll run the rent-versus-buy math with a real rent quote, your housing allowance, and the specific homes you are considering, so your decision rests on your numbers.
Related neighborhood guides: Potomac Yard and the Virginia Tech Innovation Campus · Alexandria commuter guide: Pentagon, DC and National Landing
For more Alexandria buyer and seller questions, visit our Alexandria real estate hub.