Summary answer: Not right now, based on the most current data — every Alexandria segment is trending down year-over-year as of mid-2026 (detached -2.7%, condos -6.2%, attached -0.5%), a real reversal from the optimistic 4.2% single-family growth forecast made just months earlier. Whether this continues or reverses toward that forecast is genuinely uncertain.
I'm Johnny with JQ Real Estate. Let me break down what's actually happening rather than relying on an outdated forecast.
The current trend, by segment
| Segment | June 2026 YoY |
|---|---|
| Detached single-family | -2.7% |
| Attached (townhouse/rowhouse) | -0.5% |
| Condominium | -6.2% |
Why the forecast and reality don't match
NVAR's December 2025 forecast projected Alexandria would lead Northern Virginia with 4.2% single-family growth in 2026. The actual mid-year data shows the opposite direction so far. This could reflect normal within-year fluctuation that later corrects toward the forecast, or it could mean conditions have genuinely shifted — it's too early to know which with confidence.
What's driving the current softening
- Sharp inventory growth — up 30%+ in some segments, giving buyers real alternatives
- Buyer selectivity — with more choice, buyers are pickier about condition and price
- Broader economic caution — shifting buyer behavior toward more deliberation
What this means for your buying decision
If prices continue this trend, waiting could mean an even better entry point. If the forecast proves right and this is temporary, buying now could mean getting in before renewed appreciation. Neither outcome is certain, which is why current comparable sales matter more than either the forecast or the recent trend alone.
Let's talk through your specific timing
Reach out and let's talk through what this means for your specific target property and timeline.