Summary answer: Given Herndon's genuine recent price cooling (down 5-6% YoY in several 2026 measures after 2025's sharp spike), buying now while pricing is genuinely favorable may make more sense than waiting for rates — you'd be betting on both rates dropping and prices staying low, which isn't guaranteed.
I'm Johnny with JQ Real Estate. Here's how to think through the actual math.
The trade-off, run through real numbers
| Scenario | Rate | Price Assumption |
|---|---|---|
| Buy now | ~6.65% | Today's genuinely cooled price |
| Wait 12 months | Possibly somewhat lower | Genuinely uncertain — could rebound as the market absorbs current inventory |
Why buying into current softness has real appeal
You lock in today's favorable pricing environment and can refinance later if rates drop, rather than betting on both improving simultaneously. Herndon's forecast models generally project modest continued appreciation over the coming years, meaning waiting carries genuine opportunity cost even if rates do eventually ease.
What you can do regardless of which way rates move
- Buy now with a plan to refinance later if rates genuinely drop
- Negotiate seller-paid rate buydowns given the market's current buyer-friendly conditions
Why your own timeline matters more than market timing
Whatever the broader Herndon market is doing, your own life circumstances — a job change, a growing family, a lease ending — often matter more than trying to perfectly time the market's ups and downs. Genuine market conditions should inform your strategy and negotiating approach, but rarely should they be the sole reason to delay a purchase that otherwise makes sense for your life.
Let's run your actual numbers
Reach out and let's walk through the real trade-off for your specific target price and timeline.
One more thought: markets rarely move in perfectly straight lines, so build some flexibility into your own expectations rather than assuming any single month's data predicts what comes next.
For more Herndon buyer and seller questions, visit our Herndon real estate hub.