Summary answer: On the best long-run data I could verify, a typical Fairfax County home, which includes Vienna, is worth about 9% more in 2025 than in 2023. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's all-transactions index for Fairfax County rose from 293.45 in 2023 to 319.72 in 2025, a gain of 9.0%. I could not verify a Town-level series. Your own home may be up more or less, depending on condition, location, and property type, so a current comparative market analysis is the only way to get your number.
I'm Johnny with JQ Real Estate. Here is how to read the trend and apply it to your house.
The index, year by year
| Year | FHFA Index for Fairfax County (2000 = 100) | Change From Prior Year |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 236.38 | +3.4% |
| 2021 | 253.55 | +7.3% |
| 2022 | 278.66 | +9.9% |
| 2023 | 293.45 | +5.3% |
| 2024 | 313.13 | +6.7% |
| 2025 | 319.72 | +2.1% |
From 2020 to 2025, the index rose 35.3%, about 6.2% a year. From 2023 to 2025, it rose 9.0%. The pace slowed sharply in 2025, so recent gains have been much smaller than in 2021 and 2022.
What the 2026 market shows
The index is annual, so it does not capture 2026. Redfin reported a Vienna median sale price of $1,356,854 for the three months ending September 2026, up 2.8% from a year earlier, but a price per square foot of $400, down 6.1%. Those figures are medians for homes that sold in that period and can shift when the mix of homes changes, so I treat them as support for the trend rather than a precise measure of your home. The Bright MLS postal-city median of $1,250,000, up 4.2%, is a reminder that different sources and geographies do not match.
Why your home may differ from the index
- Property type. The Fairfax County forecast from Northern Virginia Realtors and George Mason University projected 2026 price growth of 1.5% for houses and townhomes and a 0.2% decline for condos, with condo inventory up 36.7%. A condo owner should not assume the county trend applies.
- Condition. Updates since 2023 can add value, while deferred maintenance subtracts it.
- Location. The Bright MLS medians run from $442,500 for condos to $1,425,000 for detached homes, reflecting location and property mix.
- Taxes. Fairfax County adopted a $1.12 rate, down from $1.1225, and the Town cut its rate to 19 cents from 19.5 cents, though both said average bills still rise because assessments rose.
Your assessment is not your market value
Fairfax County values property at 100% of fair market value as of January 1. For 2026 the deadline for an administrative appeal with the Department of Tax Administration was April 1, and the deadline to appeal to the Board of Equalization was June 1, so check your notice for the current year's dates. The Town's tax is billed on the same assessed value, and your assessed value can lag the market, so do not use it as a price. The county's public sales data is useful for checking comps.
Turning value into equity
What matters when you sell is the amount you keep, not the headline value. Take the estimated value, subtract your mortgage payoff, and subtract selling costs. As a labeled assumption, I often use 7% of the price for commissions, closing costs, and prep, though your actual costs vary. On a $1,090,000 sale, 7% is about $76,300. If you owe $600,000, you would keep roughly $413,700 before taxes. Run the same math on a conservative value and an optimistic value so you see the range before you decide.
If you bought before 2023, you are likely further ahead than the 9.0% gain suggests, because the index rose 5.3% in 2023 alone and 35.3% from 2020 to 2025. Equity gains do not move the monthly payment on a fixed-rate loan, but they do change what you can afford if you sell.
An example
Suppose your home was worth $1,000,000 in 2023. Applying the 9.0% gain in the Fairfax County index gives roughly $1,090,000 for 2025. If your home is a condo, the 2026 forecast of a 0.2% decline suggests that could be too high. If your home is a renovated detached house near the Metro station, it could be too low. The index sets expectations, and the comps decide the price.
Next step
Reach out and I will pull recent sales on your street, adjust for what you changed since 2023, and give you a number you can use to decide whether to sell.
For more Vienna buyer and seller questions, visit our Vienna real estate hub.